6 Things to Look for in California’s Recall Election Tuesday

The recall attempt is largely a mail-in ballot election. A ballot is mailed to all active voters in the receiving state prior to Election Day, but those who wish to vote in person are also able to do so. Individual voting closes Tuesday at 8 p.m. PT in California.

A string of recent polls have shown an anti-recall effort with Newsom and a strong leadership. The most recent survey by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 58% of potential voters favor Newsom in office, compared to 39% who want to remove him.

But if the majority of Californians vote to remove Newsom, the second question on the ballot will determine who will replace him. Republican talk radio host Larry Elder is running from the contest, according to the same poll.

Newsom has kicked off the recall effort by nationalizing the contest, focusing on what it would mean for California — one of the most liberal states in the country — to be represented by a Republican, compared to Elder. To and from former President Donald Trump, other Republican governors have led their states during the coronavirus pandemic. Elder has repeatedly hit out at Newsom for more local issues—from homelessness to drought to crime—but has ended his campaign by suggesting “shenanigans” in the competition, claims by Trump and the right-wing, without The evidence has, however, resonated. Media.

Newsom’s ouster would be a major blow to Democrats, but if he is able to win on Tuesday, the recall’s failure could put Republican plans to run against Democratic overreach in combating the coronavirus pandemic – especially in 2022 In a series of competitive California House races. .

Here are six things to look for on Election Night in California:

Does Newsom run it?

When asked on Sunday their margin of victory Tuesday matters.

“A win is a win,” Newsom said. “We’re just trying to get our people out.”

But national democratic officials and activists across the country will be watching the results to draw lessons for the mid-term 2022 and beyond. Recalls are unique elections — they’re far more about the incumbent, less about the national environment and this election is taking place at an unusual time for the people to vote — but the vote only deepens if a “no” is recalled. If Blue wins by single digits in California, many top Democrats will worry about what will happen for the party in 2022.

Newsom’s team was well aware that it was headed for a recall. Preliminary polls showed that Republicans were far more animated to vote in the recall, even though they numbered about 2 to 1 in the state. This slightly agitated Newsom’s top operatives, with their nightmare scenario of a fired-up Republican base and a gloomy – or ignorant – Democratic base.

Based on ballot return data – Democrats already outperforming their party registrations in returned ballots – the worst-case scenario is not realized.

Will the Elder accept the result?

Before the results are announced, Elder, the leading Republican candidate, has captured former President Donald Trump’s lies about election fraud and unfounded possibility raised “Shenanigans” in California K.

Doubting the integrity of the elections – despite the fact that there is no evidence of widespread fraud anywhere in the United States – has become popular in GOP politics and almost demanded by a base loyal to Trump.

And Elder – who previously said that President Joe Biden had won “fairly and clearly” in 2020 – has recently embraced those same lies.

“In my opinion, the 2020 election was full of shenanigans,” Elder recently said on Fox News. “And my fear is that they will try and miss right here in this election.”

Elder is being bullied by Trump, who said in a statement laden with lies on Monday, the day before the election: “Does anyone really believe the California recall election was rigged?”

Elder said his campaign has a team of lawyers who “will file a lawsuit in a timely manner” if problems arise.

Did Newsom’s nationalization work?

Newsom will be looking to keep his job as California’s top executive. But his message in the last days of preaching has been particularly national.

Newsom repeatedly warned Democratic audiences that Elder was “on the right side of Donald Trump,” invoking the former president who is deeply unpopular in California. The governor also compared his leadership to Republican governors in Florida and Texas, accusing both of pushing their states away from the “Covid cliff”. And the Democratic leader called on many national Democrats in the campaign’s final weeks, from President Joe Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris to former President Barack Obama to sans Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar, to come to her aid. .

Elder, too, has taken a national tone on his campaign, noting that he may, in the unlikely event of a U.S. Senate vacancy, appoint a Republican and end Democratic control of the legislative body.

The strategy has turned Tuesday’s election into a pseudo-referendum on whether Trump – and Trumpism’s ongoing specter – can still turn Democratic voters out of the 2020 election in a little less than a year.

Based on conversations with several Democratic voters in California, it’s clear that Trump is at the front of the mind.

“When you have another candidate who is the same as us 4 years ago, we don’t want that in California,” said Maria Morales, an elected official in El Monte, Calif. “We want to be as progressive as ever.”

Testing the popularity of tougher coronavirus measures

Republicans hoped that a recall election in dark blue California would reveal a national playbook on how to run against Democratic overreach. in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.

Instead, if the polls turn out to be accurate, it could have the opposite effect – revealing widespread public support for measures like the vaccine mandate Newsom has imposed on teachers and health care workers. Newsom has not only moved toward stricter coronavirus measures, he has made them central to his closing arguments for voters and used Elder’s pledge to roll back the rules against the Republican governor.

Other Democrats on the ballot this year, including New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Terry McAuliffe in Virginia, have also adopted the vaccine mandate.

Although all three are running in blue states, their approach reflects a growing belief among some Democrats that the tide of public sentiment is turning against Republicans who are advocating for individual rights and the choice of those whose vaccinations are denied. helping to prolong the pandemic.

If Newsom wins by a healthy margin, it could bolster Democrats’ confidence that tough measures intended to stop the spread of COVID-19 will pay off in the midterm elections this year and next.

effect of mail in voting

It could have been a long night.

If the recall is close, California is not known for fast counting ballots, which means it could take some time to determine the final result of the contest.

Each active voter in California is mailed a ballot for this recall and, for those ballots to be counted, they must either be returned in person by the end of the vote on Tuesday, or they must be postmarked on Election Day. Must be known and received by county officials. Seven days later till September 21.

California was one of only a few states that changed its election rules for the 2020 election and required that all voters receive a ballot in the mail before election day. The practice continued to be recalled, and Democrats in the state legislature pushed a bill that would ensure that all active registered voters received a ballot for all elections.

Newsom did not say whether he would sign the bill during a conversation with reporters on Saturday, but he said, “The possibility of expanding it by California has been given to the governor of California and I hope to consider signing it.” Will be there for you.”

No celebrity is a winner

Hardly ever One candidate drew as much attention, while registering little interest from voters in the form of reality television star and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner.

Jenner launched the recall campaign with one major asset: Among the vast field of little-known candidates, she received widespread name recognition. After all, California had previously seen political novices take advantage of their celebrity status: In 2003, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger emerged as the Republican winner after the state recalled unpopular Democratic Governor Gray Davis.

Jenner, however, faced hostile and transphobic treatment at times—including at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas.

She stumbled in interviews early and late in the race, including saying on CNN last week she supported abortion rights, but also backed Texas’ decision to halt abortions beyond six weeks — before many women had even Find out that she is pregnant.

And she left the state and the country in July in the middle of her campaign to shoot a reality television show in Australia.

Jenner now barely enters voting on Election Day.

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