Thursday, May 6, 2021

Analysis: 6 biggest avenues from recapitalization of census

The controversial process of reintroducing 435 House districts among 50 states using population growth (and loss) – known as recapitalization – is the official start of each state’s redistricting process, with each congressional seat The tackle is remodeled. Census Results.

Top Line? A half-dozen states will gain at least one new seat in 2022, of which Texas is the only state – see what I did there? – To acquire two districts. Other states – mainly in the Upper Midwest – will lose a House seat for the next decade.

Below, some of the biggest takeaways from the Census Bureau announcement.

* South and West continue to seize more and more population (and power)… : Texas, Florida, Colorado, Montana, Oregon and North Carolina – All six states that get house seats are in the two regions of the country that have been the fastest growing in the last three decades. For example, since the 2000 census, Texas has received eight seats, while Florida has received five and Arizona and Georgia have three each. In fact, all 13 states that have received seats in the revaluation since the 2000 census are all in the south or west.

* – While the seats continue to leak in the rust belt: Of the seven states that lost a district after the 2020 census, all two – California and New York – fall within the lifetime construction of the country. Pennsylvania has lost four seats since 2000, as did Ohio. Michigan is three down. Ditto Illinois. The biggest loss of seats in the last three decades, however, is New York with five.

* Election Map does not change All All that much: Expectations and Projections – Were going to reevaluate that the electoral map would shift in favor of Republicans as Republic-friendly territory like Texas and Florida would have major expected gains. But Texas got only two seats and Florida just one – in each case one seat at least as most people thought they would. The shift is still more useful for the incoming Republican presidential candidate in 2024 – but only that much. “If the 2020 elections were held under these new calculations, Biden would have won with 303 [electoral votes] (Instead of 306), “ House Editor of Cook Political Report David Wasserman tweeted. “Under most estimates, he would have won by just 302 votes, so the census is slightly better for the result [Democrats] than expected.”
* Long California Boom is no more: In the last five decades, California has been the country’s population engine. As noted by the Washington Post’s Scott Wilson Awesome piece on golden state Over the weekend: “Beginning in 1960, the state’s population grew by more than 30 percent over the next three decades, a rate that peaked in the 1990 census, which found that the California population had jumped 37 percent in the last 10 years. ” The state’s Congress delegation grew rapidly, too. It went from 30 seats in the 1950s to 52 seats five decades later. But in the last 10 years, California’s population increased by 6.1%, lower than the national average of 7.4%..
* Texas is the new political superpower: Sure, Texas won two seats, unlike the three that most people expected. But in addition to this it means that the Lone Star State will have 38 House seats – and 40 electoral college votes will begin to compete in California’s running force (54 electoral votes in 2024). But this is only part of the story. While Texas is a state that favors Republicans (it was censored twice more by former President Donald Trump. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz were reelected in an extremely expensive race in the last four years), the Democrats said in a previous Has clearly inrode the decade. (Trump won the state by only 5.5 points in 2020, compared to George W. Bush in Texas, which won Texas 23 points in 2004, Or Mitt Romney, who won it About 16 points in 2012.) Increased competition of the state when coupled with its increasing swat within the Congress Texas is the most important state in the next decade, politically speaking.
* Little Rhode Island is not So Little!: For the past few years, those who closely follow the recapitalization process read (Nerds like me) have expected Rhode Island, which is the smallest state in the country by area, to be in its two house seats Would lose one from – – re-accusing it of a single-district state like Wyoming, South Dakota and Delaware (among others). But not! Perhaps the biggest surprise of the revaluation announcement will be Rhode Island Both Its House seats. This is a huge relief for Reps David Cicillin and Jim Langevin, who were expected to face off against each other for the state’s single seat. Somewhere big ciani is smiling.


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