Analysis: California Recall Speed ​​Read


It’s a bizarre situation in which a dark blue state could oust its Democratic governor and be replaced by a proxy battle with a conservative talk show host handling Covid-19 and other issues – such as homelessness.

If Newsom survives this recall attempt, This would raise serious questions about whether the costly and distracting recall system should be reformed.

If Newsom is removed from office, It will be an off-the-charts earthquake that shakes Democrats in every part of this country, who may see California’s fight as a test of its national message of responsible COVID-19 restrictions and good governance on individual liberties .

Here’s a speed-read recap of the key points to know.

this is happening because GOP opponents of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, earlier this yearNewsom felt weakness over COVID-19 restrictions and a moment of hypocrisy after he was photographed at a fancy dinner while Californians were being asked to stay inside.

he did it by Using the often-attempted recall provision in the state’s constitution to gather more than 1.5 million signatures and force a recall, though that’s a tiny fraction of the more than 12.4 million who won the 2018 gubernatorial race had voted.

When the campaign started The signatures were authenticated in July, triggering a recall campaign.

Voting has been going on for weeks. A ballot paper was sent to every voter in the state to return by post, so people have been voting for a month. There is also in-person voting on Tuesday.

Voters will be asked two questions: 1) Should Newsom be recalled? and 2) if so, who should replace them? That doesn’t appear as an option on the second question.

What are Democrats telling supporters? He has not fielded an accepted party alternative, instead encouraging people to oppose the recall.

What are Republicans telling supporters. Many are running on question two, but Republicans, if the polls are accurate, have turned to radio talk show host Larry Elder, who opposes most COVID-19 restrictions.

Delta changed the course of the election. Since the recall began earlier this year, the Delta variant has flared up in the US, changing public opinion about Newsom’s handling of the virus.

Democrats sought to nationalize the race. They wanted to focus voters on their frustrations with the national GOP and not Newsom.

Republicans are helping them. He has laid the groundwork for arguing without evidence, the result being flawed, as he did with the 2020 presidential election. This is becoming a pattern. This is not right.
I did last month. wrote about How undemocratic this strange process Is; A governor with 50% approval could possibly be replaced by a talk show host with less than a quarter of the votes. And it would cost the state $276 million and got in the way of governance during Newsom’s tenure.

President Joe Biden is coming to see the damage caused by the wildfires and, later, hold a rally to promote Newsom.

The best place to get all the background is in this piece from CNN’s Maeve Reston: What do you need to know about the California recall?.
she also wrote about Playing a role in the state’s homelessness crisis A large proportion of the country’s homeless population is in California and many are living outside.
(he also listed the key Places to Watch as Tuesday’s Return Rolls. I’d forgive him for not including the Central Valley, but except in Modesto, where I lived.)

Will Newsom be recalled?

We have to let them count the votes! But, CNN political forecaster Harry Anten brushed off the poll by this recall and placed it in the context of the recent California elections.

The gist of his assessment is that a “no” on the recall – that is, Newsom’s stay in office – is the most likely outcome.

For starters, Newsom’s approval rating has generally been above 50%, suggesting that less than half of Californians want her to go.

What if the poll is wrong?

It is possible that the governor may have had some largely undetermined grounds for his opposition and may be recalled when all votes are counted. But — and it’s an interesting one to take with us in the upcoming midterm elections — there is reason to believe that the turnout in California is closer to the mark than voting elsewhere.

“The biggest lapse in last year’s presidential election happened in the Midwest,” writes Anten.

Even if voting closes in California, but Wisconsin closes in on the same terms as voting in 2020, Newsom could still recover.

Anten: “Depending on how you calculate the average, polling in these three states underestimated the result by about 7 points. The ‘no’ is more than twice the size of these 2020 turnouts.”

He says the vote has actually undermined the power of Democrats in California.

Why does polling underestimate Republicans in some states and Democrats in others?

Anten: “Republicans are underrepresented in states where the majority or clear plurality of voters are white without college degrees such as in the aforementioned Midwestern states. In California, these same voters make up only a quarter of the electorate.”

When will we know who won?

In-person polls close on Tuesday at 11 p.m. ET, but mail-in ballots will be counted until they reach Sept. 21. Depending on how close things are, CNN could produce results very soon.

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