The scale of his proposals reflects the demand for pent-ups that produce years of ambition. Acts to curb income inequality and promote middle class wages were already at the center of Democratic debate since last year and brought even more relief.
The comparatively priced American Family Plan coming later this month is the least important. The creation of “human capital” through investment in universal elementary education represents the cornerstone of the Democratic dream of reducing poverty, increasing racial equity, and promoting long-term prosperity.
“We have a lot of evidence, accumulated over the years, about what is the basis of success in education and career and high-productivity jobs in the first five years,” said Laura D’Andrea Tyson, University of California. , A Berkeley professor who chaired President Bill Clinton’s Economic Advisory Council. “We have argued and argued. Ultimately, we have time in terms of popular support and Democratic control to do it.”
When Biden came of age after World War II, the federal government invested much more in the components of economic development than it does now. Funds for President Dwight Eisenhower’s federal highway program, President John F. Kennedy’s space program, and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society swore part of the budget classified as investment – capital expenditures, research and development, and education and training – More than 6% of the size of the entire economy.
Meanwhile, the political ascent of conservatives led by President Ronald Reagan squeezed the rest of the budget as they sought to discredit the government, reduce it and cut taxes. The White House Budget Office touts this fiscal year as the tenth consecutive year and the 23rd of the last 25, with federal investment at half of the 1960s as a share of the economy, at half or less.
Biden’s Democratic predecessors have struggled to resist the trend. Clinton identified her first two years by reducing the deficit, then saw austerity Republicans winning control of Congress.
President Barack Obama made significant public investments in his 2009 stimulus, responding to the financial crisis and recession. But Republicans withdrew the House the following year, forced spending, and blocked Obama’s requests for additional investment in infrastructure and early childhood education.
‘A small window of opportunity’
Democrats now hope that the pendulum is back in their direction. Before Biden defeated him, Donald Trump, too, emphasized long-term economic struggles as “forgotten people”.
The disproportionate economic effects of the epidemic deepened the problem. Democrats say a strong fiscal response, including a $ 1,400 check per capita in Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion Kovid-19 relief plan, has begun to rebuild long-lost trust in Washington.
“People are now seeing how the government can be on their side,” said Sherord Brown of Ohio. “He changes everything.”
But Biden lost to Congress in 2022, as Clinton and Obama did in the midterm after their elections. Not underestimating the prospects of Republican cooperation, Democratic allies accept the possibility that their plan needs to be passed on its own, as a crying cry for unity.
“It’s a small window of opportunity,” Clinton’s former Labor Secretary Robert Reich tweeted. “So be courageous, damn it.”
Biden’s plan is nothing if not bold. In 2019, non-defense federal investments totaled $ 337 billion. If enacted, White House proposals would more than double over the years.
As Rouse said: “Sometimes you can repair the roof. Eventually you will have to replace the roof.”
The difficulty of pushing through so much spending, and raising taxes to raise it, would require intense dialogue with Congress. Republican economists who acknowledge the potential for public investment can thwart the process of smelting votes.
“It’s a sound theory in theory,” observed Greg Mankey, who chaired President George W. Bush’s Economic Advisory Council and now teaches at Harvard. “The important question is whether in practice, the political system now succeeds in targeting investments with high returns rather than ‘producing bridges.”
It would take years for Biden’s return on investment to occur in any event. But he will enjoy an immediate political advantage if the Congress saves him.
Forecasters are already predicting that the economy will grow in the next two years even without additional legislation. Voters will therefore present their initial verdict on their agenda in the hot light of strong economic growth.