Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Analysis: Do not throw away your mask yet

AM: What we are projecting right now, if the level of mobility remains or keeps coming down and if the wearing of masks is too high and goes up, vaccination cases will continue to decrease all the way till next winter.

We predicted a collision in this month and in April due to the new variant, B.1.1.7. We knew it would come in. We also predicted a bump as many Americans told us in surveys – 25% of Americans said – once vaccinated, they are not going to wear masks.

So we are noticing that wearing masks will reduce and we have seen that it will gradually come down in the United States. Therefore it is very important to take care.

What does this mean for Americans? We are going in the summer. Vaccines are working very well. They are effective and they are preventing infection. Hot weather and vaccines are helping us. Our behavior is hurting us. This balance will determine what happens in the future.

Conditionally, right now, if Americans wear masks and limit mobility, then we should see a fall all the way next winter. Why next winter? It is a seasonal virus. Next winter, we are going to take a hike. There is no way to avoid it. Like the flu, it is about to come again.

It is coming again. But it will determine how big the spike is, which number we start with. So if we control it in summer, we will have a mild winter. We have to increase the masks we wear in winter. It is very important. You may have to beef it up to 95% and vaccines will help us reduce mortality and hospital admission because they are very effective.

The one thing that will slow down again with conditional projection, the one thing that will slow everything down is a new version that will give less effect to vaccination. So we start again.

Cnn: How many roles does a role have Vaccines Played to get us to this point?

AM: We started vaccination on 14 December and we did not have enough vaccines. I mean it takes some time to show up, but right now we are seeing a huge impact of vaccinating people who have been vaccinated, especially fully vaccinated.

We are seeing a decline in mild or severe cases. We are seeing a drop in hospitalization and of course mortality. Hence the high risk group, we are seeing a decline.

CnN: I am curious if the hesitation of the vaccine is built into your model and how it can affect the lives of Americans if we reach a point where there is a supply of distant demand?

AM: Yes. So we are hesitant to manufacture our model vaccines. And we do it by the state, definitely.

Right now about 25% of Americans are hesitant. It varies by state. And yes, we are in constant supply of vaccines. And we are expecting – based on the data we have – that we should receive about 5 million doses a day in the second half of April. So we should have a lot of vaccines. By the end of April, we will have more vaccines than takers. And this is what we are very worried about.

So in a way, we fear that we will have more supply than demand. And we have seen it in some states. We’ve seen it in a few states, and I’ll be frank, we’ve just seen it in some red states.

So yes, we have to deal with it. And I am very concerned about vaccine inhibition in America. The positive news is that these vaccines are highly effective. We have in America, we have not seen any side effects of importance to scare us.

I mean, AstraZeneca is a completely different story. We do not have AstraZeneca. And I’m looking at the numbers right now. I’m assuming in April, by the end of April, each one of us – you and I – will know someone who has been vaccinated and they are still around and nothing happened to them and their DNA is not there Was changed So people will be encouraged more. And it is up to the scientific community to get that information as soon as possible.

We are seeing a decline in hospitalization among the elderly. We are seeing an increase in youth. I mean, it’s obvious. The data is telling us that these vaccines are working. They are effective, they are safe. So I hope people will change their mind. But we are a divided country, unfortunately.

CNN: what if Vaccine inhibition Is – 30%, 35% or more – how is that picture going in the summer?

AM: Big problem. Remember, we need herd immunity. So we need to vaccinate at least 75%, 80% of Americans right now, only because vaccines are authorized for adults 16 and older or 18 and older.

We do not already have 25% of our population vaccinated. I mean, we are already starting without hand tied. Our hands are already tied. So we want all those who are eligible for the vaccine to take it.

We can’t, you know, 45% of them are saying no. what does it mean? This means that the virus is roaming. This means mutations. This means that we may see a mutation that would make vaccines less effective.

CNN: You bring up a kind of nightmare scenario where not enough people are vaccinated, the virus continues to wash away from parts of the population, and the virus mutates to a point where our vaccines are less effective and we’re back in a class Come. How likely is this to happen?

AM: it’s possible. I mean, I don’t want to scare the public, but look at it. When Brazil and South Africans (different) emerged we were worried and we fell asleep. And we are still losing sleep.

We have seen this in South Africa with AstraZeneca with 10% effectiveness. So, we are very concerned about it. We are already seeing signs of this, lucky for us in the US, that mRNA vaccines are much better and they are working much better.

So to plan for the worst case scenario, we need a booster. We know that Modern and Pfizer are already revising the vaccine. So someone like me who got two shots a while back, I need to get a booster before winter. For those of you who have not received the vaccine because of your age, when you receive the vaccine, you get a new one before winter. So we have to stay ahead of it. To stay ahead of this, we need to know what is going on in the house and what is moving elsewhere.

CNN: And is that something we can do indefinitely?

AM: Yes. As long as we have a handle. Right now, remember why we are worried. We do not have an effective drug for Kovid-19. we does not.

What we have in our hands now is just a vaccine. And yes, our physicians now have more experience working with Kovid-19. They know science, they know what oxygen is. We are still able to get more oxygen without adding a tube. We are able to estimate blood clots, we are able to use a lot of things right now. We know the disease, but we do not yet have medicine for it.

CNN: Want to ask about Some states like texas The first signs of good news inevitably roll back mitigation measures. How is it affecting the progress of our country?

AM: Then, the country is divided and it is a political decision and not a scientific decision. I mean, let’s be quite honest about it. We have to speak. I think we need to speak more than ever.

I do not need a mask to wear a mask. Many people do not have the mask imperative to wear masks. We know that we have to do the right thing. We want the mask to be mandatory for those who do not want to wear the mask. That is the biggest, important point. And which is really disappointing, quite honestly, the same people are making the same mistake again and again.

CNN: Regardless of which state you are in, what should people do while waiting to get a vaccine?

AM: We should wear masks, definitely masks to protect ourselves and others. If you are already wearing a mask today, please upgrade your mask. Upgrade to whatever mask you are wearing. I apply a mask when I go out.

I keep a safe distance from everyone. Even when I’m in the shops – someone ahead of me? I stay away from them. And this is what the public has to do. Let’s wear a mask, watch our distance, wash our hands.

Now, it takes two. The government will also have to be responsible. If I decide to do it properly and stay healthy in my state and protect myself and protect my family and the people I come in contact with, then I need to do so in laws and Gotta help the city.

CNN: Some people are going to listen to what you just said about wearing masks, continuing these best practices, and say: ‘Why are we upset by this? These vaccines are highly effective. ‘Whoever thinks that, what do you call that?

AM: No, because not everyone has been vaccinated, right? We have a long way to go. We are not vaccinating our children. This is our future. How can we protect our children until they are allowed to take the vaccine? We have to live with this virus and we have to contain our urge to get back to normal.

People have lost their lives, people have died, people are still suffering from Kovid-19, even after getting out of hospitals, we owe it to them to correct it.

We have to do. We are not out of danger. And yes, when everyone is vaccinated, it is a completely different story, but we are not there yet.

CNN: At what level would you like to see vaccination before you can start snatching back some of these public health measures?

AM: In winter, 80% of us should be vaccinated. In summer, we can get away with 60% or 70%, because, simply, we are taking out our activities.

CNN: I am One has to imagine that this is a very heavy lift from the perspective of a public health message. If people can safely take off their masks this summer and go out and do things, and then they are asked to put it back in the winter, it can be really challenging for a lot of people Going to do.

AM: In all my interviews I have been saying that the mask will be with us seasonally. Yes, until we get rid of Kovid-19 completely – it is not roaming anywhere else – we may have to wear masks according to the weather.

CNN: You are clearly keeping an eye on it, I am curious what your mindset is about where we are going?

AM: You know, I’m optimistic by nature, but I’m really worried.

What I am seeing right now – I am worried about the political decisions being made ahead of time. I am afraid of failures. I’m really worried.

I am optimistic at the end of the day, we will get there, but there are mistakes that are being made right now. And I’m really worried.

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