However, a closer look at recent history and turnout suggests that Biden may be preferred for withdrawal among Hispanic people for one simple reason: He is now incumbent.
Biden is now doing better overall than the election. The Gallup data we are using here has an approval rating of 55%. Even controlling for a higher approval rating overall, Biden has received an unproven increase in support from Hispanics. He is now 17 points better overall with Hispanics, while he was 10 to 14 points better with him in the 2020 election.
Also note that unlike elections, indecision is allowed in voting. If we allocate an undetermined between approval and disapproval for both Hispanic and overall, Biden’s approval rating is nearly 20 points higher in the Gallup poll with Hispanics overall.
This 20-point difference between Hispanics and how adults feel about Biden overall is wider than the previous Democratic president he saw in his first months on the job.
Obama saw improvement with Hispanics relative to his overall performance, but not to the extent that Biden is getting.
The fact that both Biden and Obama saw a greater boost overall with Hispanics should not be surprising based on history.
Recent incumbents feel their support among Hispanic people has increased in their re-election bids. In fact, the last five incumbents have fared better with Hispanics since George HW Bush when he was elected to his first term.
We saw the same incident with Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2020. Both performed poorly overall in their re-election campaigns, but did better with Hispanic voters. In 2016 Catalyst data, Trump lost them by 39 points to 25 points in 2020, even losing the popular vote by 4.5 points instead of 2.1 points.
In fact, you can look at heavily Hispanic congressional districts and see the same pattern. Since 1988, incumbents running for re-election have consistently performed better in the heavily Hispanic South Bronx congressional district, currently near Richie Torres, when they were first elected.
We clearly do not know that if Biden decides to run again he will get the same bump, although history is in his favor. Preliminary approval rating data from Gallup indicates that this is quite possible.