According to the key points of the analysis, for every degree Celsius of global warming, monsoon rainfall will increase by 5%.
While too much rain may seem like a good thing, too much (or too little) can damage crops. India depends on this seasonal rainfall to maintain the crops needed to feed the second most populous country in the world. However, the authors suggest that climate change will negatively affect their agriculture if they are left unabated.
This is not an increase in monsoon rainfall, this study suggests that it can be influential – it is variability.
This includes more prolonged dry spells where rainfall is most needed.
A more ‘chaotic’ and ‘uncertain’ future remains ahead
For example, rice is a major source of livelihood in the Indian subcontinent, which is susceptible to changes in rainfall. Crops require rainfall, especially during the initial growing period. But too little or at once can damage plants.
“There is a problem with the increased variability, however, of reduced forecasting, which makes it harder for farmers to cope with the monsoon,” Leverman, who is associated with the Potsdam Institute, tells CNN.
Agricultural policy expert Devinder Sharma told CNN that farming methods would need to adapt to this climate variability, but exactly how this is unknown.
“We have no idea how climate change will work. It could be a heavy rain at one point, followed by a drought or a cyclone. It won’t be uniform. It will cause a lot of problems in the agricultural sector as well as the economy. for. “
History affects humans on the intensity of rain
“Under climate change, the CO2 effect is by far the strongest effect and will dominate monsoon changes over all natural and other man-made impacts,” says Leverman.