Friday, May 7, 2021

The US intelligence community warns of destroying the long-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic


“The economic decline from the epidemic is likely to cause instability or worsen, at least and perhaps in many countries, as people become more desperate in the face of interlocking pressures including continued economic recession, job losses and disrupted supply chains.” The report warns.

This grim economic picture increases the risk of internal conflicts, increased cross-border migration and even the collapse of national governments, officials warned.

Report good, Known as Annual Threat Assessment, is generally made public annually. but Bitter altercation The 2020 report between the Trump administration and Congress was shelved, giving the first public glimpse into the intelligence community’s assessment of the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also gives serious warnings about Russian and Chinese covert influence operations, and an early insight into Iran’s nuclear ambitions since President Joe Biden took office as he re-released an updated version of the 2015 nuclear deal It was an attempt to start what former President Donald Trump did in 2018.

The picture is not beautiful. Officials have warned that in addition to obvious humanitarian concerns related to the epidemic – such as food shortages and unequal access to treatment – the virus is also changing the security calculations of countries such as Russia and China to increase its geopolitical Are taking advantage of the crisis effect. Both seek to benefit through vaccine diplomacy. The report noted that Beijing is also using global health support efforts to export its surveillance equipment and technologies.

The report also says that despite rapid progress on vaccine development, the world cannot yet breathe a sigh of relief. The report warns that as long as the vaccine “continues to be a threat to populations worldwide, vaccines and prescription drugs are widely distributed.” And the resurgence of the transition earlier this year “may be even more financially impacted by the growing budget impacts of struggling businesses in the hard-hit sectors, such as tourism and restaurant folds and governments.”

In a chilling echo of recent history, the 2019 Threat Assessment warned of an epidemic that predicted “the United States and the world would be vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or largescale outbreak of an infectious disease, leading to a huge death toll” There may be an increase. And disability, severely affects the world economy, puts pressure on international resources, and increases calls in the United States for support. ”

Russia and China

The report also issued a disproportionate warning on Russian activity, stating that Moscow “presents one of the most serious intelligence threats to the United States.” It reaffirms impact operations targeting the 2020 election, noting that Moscow “wants the US elections to reduce America’s global standing, reduce discord within the United States, U.S. decision-making, and influence American voters.” Sees almost certainly as an effort. ”

This conclusion appeared in an annual threat assessment without pomp, demonstrating an immediate departure from the fight over public intelligence assessments under the Trump administration, when officials faced an inevitable blow from Trump whenever he questioned Russian election interference. Information made public.

China, intelligence leaders have warned, also presents “an increasing influence threat” in the United States – an emphasis that could give some political cover to the former Trump administration who posed major counter-threat threats to China during the 2020 election Was sought to be portrayed as. Documents subsequently announced that China “has not implemented influence efforts intended to change the outcome of the US presidential election.”

But “Beijing has intensified efforts to shape the political environment in the United States to promote its policy priorities, public discourse, political figures of pressure, people Beijing opposes its interests, and religious freedom.” And opposes criticism of China over issues such as repression. Of democracy in Hong Kong, “the report says.

Iran

The report noted that the intelligence community believes Iran is not currently taking steps that believe it is necessary to build nuclear weapons but has resumed some activities that have been signed by both countries since 2015. Violate the terms of the agreement.

“We continue to assess whether Iran is not currently carrying out major nuclear weapons-development activities that would require us to produce nuclear equipment. However, following the US withdrawal from the JCPOAA agreement in May 2018 , Iranian authorities have dropped some. The report said Iran’s commitments and resumed nuclear activities beyond the JCPOA border.

The intelligence community’s report also offered a clear warning to Biden as he does not face pressure to ease sanctions on Iran in the service of a broader deal: “regime leaders negotiate with the United States without possible sanctions Would be reluctant to engage diplomatically. Or humanitarian relief or the United States Comprehensive Plan of Joint Action (JCPOA). “

The report states that Iran is committed to facing US pressure, although Tehran is also wary of engaging in a full-fledged conflict.

In 2018, the then US President Donald Trump withdrew the deal, removing waves of sanctions against Iran. A year later, Tehran began to slowly withdraw from its commitments to the nuclear deal, resuming parts of its uranium enrichment program.

But Biden has vowed to return to the JCPOA. For months, Tehran and Washington have been about loggerheads about who should return to the Landmark deal first – Iran says it will remove all US sanctions earlier, and the US has accused Iran of intransigence.

Domestic extremism

The US intelligence community is warning domestic extremists who are not associated with or inspired by foreign terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, according to the report, “a major threat” to the US.

The report noted that domestic extremists are motivated by a range of ideologies, which “reflect an increasingly complex threat landscape, including racially or ethnically motivated threats and retaliatory or retaliatory threats.”

“Of these, violent extremists who turn out to be an often overlapping mix of white supremacist, neo-Nazi, and excluded cultural-nationalist beliefs, most often through loose online communities for like-minded individuals and groups in the West. Permanently international relations are there. The threat. This spreading movement has been flowing from eBay and for decades, but has increased since 2015, “it adds.

The report says that white supremacists have been responsible for at least 26 fatal attacks.

“While these extremists often see themselves as part of a wider global movement, most attacks have been carried out by individuals or small, independent cells,” it says. “Australia, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom consider white racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists, including neo-Nazi groups, to face the fastest-growing terrorist threat.”

Last month, CNN Reported that summary A new United States intelligence assessment states that “the narratives of fraud in the recent general election” and “the impact of violent violations of the US Capitol” make it “almost certainly” to attempt to engage in additional acts of domestic violence Will inspire year

The same day a summary was released that DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told lawmakers that domestic violence is an “biggest threat” to the US – a clear reminder that federal officials are likely to see more violence in the coming months Remain worried.

“New sociopolitical developments – such as statements of fraud in recent general elections, the impact of violent violations of the US Capitol, conditions related to the COVID-19 epidemic, and conspiracies that promote violence – will almost certainly inspire (domestic violent extremists) To try to get involved in violence this year, ”says the unclassified summary.

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